“Climate change can make progress”

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Climate change threatens Asia and Oceania. But for the whole picture one must also take Europe and Germany. A conversation with Kira Vinke from the Potsdam Institute for climate impact research.

A recent report by the Asian development Bank (ADB) and the Potsdam Institute for climate impact research (PIK) a rating of the consequences of climate change for the Asia-Pacific Region. The result is that Asia have to reckon with the devastating consequences of climate change. The ADB has invested in 2016 is 3.7 billion US dollars in the fight against climate change and its consequences. By 2020, there will be six billion.

Deutsche Welle: Why is affected the Asia-Pacific Region particularly hard by climate change and its consequences?

Kira Vinke: there are two reasons. For one, it is so, that Asia is particularly vulnerable geographic regions. For example, the large river deltas, or the Himalayas, from which the fresh water for over a billion people fed. On the other, there are in Asia very large poor Population living in high-risk areas.

We take the example of Bangladesh. On the Bay of Bengal, we find a very flat river Delta, on the always tropical storms hit. Here, many factors come together: the rise in sea level, the soils too salty. Storm surges have a more devastating impact than in the past. The flood zone is now much larger. The people can protect there is no experience, how you are against particularly strong storms or Floods. The risk areas are densely populated.

Kira Vinke from the Potsdam Institute for climate impact research

What scenarios have you played in the current report with the ADB?

We have presented in the Report focus on two scenarios. A scenario that at the Paris climate protection agreement-oriented, so the agreed target to limit global warming to below two degrees.

Alternatively, we have considered another scenario, in which everything goes on as usual. Globally, we land at about four degrees at the end of the 21st century. Century. For the Asian land mass that would mean an average temperature increase of six degrees.

To the climate change impacts associated with such warming, will not adjust. You think about Delhi. That is where I have lived for a long time. Six degrees means that it can also be eight degrees or more. At temperatures of up to 45 degrees, it is then scarcely still possible, unprotected outdoors. Are affected usually the poor, people living in the Slums and no air conditioning make, or people who work Outdoors, such as on construction sites.

What does this mean for the progress that has been made in recent years in Asia?

In fact, it was in Asia and the Pacific major achievements in the fight against poverty and in disaster preparedness. Climate change and consequent extreme climate events could make this progress, but nothing.

To name a few key parameters: The amount of precipitation would increase with unchecked climate change in most of the countries in the Region by up to 50 percent, while they could decrease in countries such as Pakistan and Afghanistan from 20 to 50 percent. The income of rice production in some countries of Southeast Asia up to the year 2100 by one-half.

Extreme events such as Typhoon Haiyan will be more frequent. (2013 killed by the Typhoon in the Philippines, more than 6,000 people, note.d.Red.) That was a humanitarian disaster, which had also pulled in considerable economic damages. Need to adjust the governments increased. This means, we must fight on two fronts: against poverty and against climate change. You can’t have one without the other.

What are the possibilities for the various countries in the Region, in order to address the consequences of climate change?

This is of course not a flat rate for all countries. But it is already so, that Asia now produces a large part of global emissions themselves, where the goods are produced, consumed to a large extent in the West. The Asian countries are quite willing to accept part of the responsibility. You see, the fact that countries such as China and India continue to be the objectives behind their climate protection.

The awareness of climate change is in Asia. But as it looks because, with concrete measures?

The regional is very different. There are, of course, pioneers such as, for example, the Region of Palawan in the Philippines, which has decided, completely on renewable or large cities such as Seoul or Tokyo, which operate a very efficient public transport system. Asia, the potential for innovation to further experimentation to create spaces for a more sustainable form of economy than our own. Many examples of the opposite for non-compliance with environmental or climate protection standards there are, unfortunately, as well as the pollution of the Ganges river in India. Because although there are regulations, but so far little success in the implementation, enabling the livelihood of many people is threatened.

In the case of emissions, there are especially Resistors, because it touches on economic interests. An example: It is quite clear that we cannot continue to build with cement and steel. The production of cement and steel produced extremely a lot of emissions. If we take the Two-degree target of the Paris climate protection agreement seriously, we would be up to the construction with cement and steel is a large part of the budget of carbon dioxide. The cities of the future – and which are built just in Asia – we can no longer build as it is now. We would have to actually build with wood or with carbon fibers.

Kira Vinke in Interviews in Bangladesh

But how do you have the theme because in Asia the people experience?

For my own research, I was in Bangladesh. I have spoken with people who had to migrate due to extreme Storms, because their Land flooded or destroyed, or was too salty. They have migrated from the countryside to the city. These people I visited in the Slums, and long Interviews with them. In all the Interviews I’ve always asked the question: is Changing the environment? The answer was invariably: Yes.

This also coincides with our scientific knowledge. It will be hot. The rain is irregular. In the long dry periods of very heavy precipitation, etc., then follows

And then, I’ve always wondered: Why is that? Then the answer is either “God’s will” or “I don’t know it was”. That surprised me, even though I shouldn’t have been surprised. The people with whom I have spoken were in great part illiterate and without education. Of course, these people often do not know what climate change is. But exactly therein lies a danger. The people do not know that the next flood can be twice as strong. How are you adjusting then? How will you make under these circumstances, their own future?

What can be done by the countries?

Here are the industrial Nations, in my view, in the game, which had historically produced much more emissions than the under-developed countries, such as Bangladesh. We have been to these countries, there is a responsibility. We can help people, for example through technology transfer.

In the case of Bangladesh, a double injustice is today. People produce under adverse conditions, and products for the Western market, without value added adequately involved. Conversely, the West is making significant profits with the emission of enormous emissions, which then, in turn, the people in Bangladesh affected the most.

Acuminate, one could say that people in Asia pay our emission statement. When you see how the people suffer there and sometimes not know why their children are dying in the floods, you will understand that the solution to the climate problem is an urgent matter of global justice.

Kira Vinke is a research assistant to the Director at the Potsdam Institute for climate impact research. She has studied stays in International relations in Berlin, study in Honolulu, Tokyo, and Madrid. She is graduating now to the topic of “climate change and Migration” at the Humboldt University in Berlin.

The Interview was conducted by Rodion Ebbighausen.