The Turkish President is sawing off the Branch on which he sits. Because Turkey is economically dependent on Germany. Now Berlin is the public coverage of Turkey-shops to the test.
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Turkey accused German companies
So: Given the numerous conflicts with Turkey’s Minister Sigmar Gabriel, foreign announced a “realignment” of the policy of the Federal government against Ankara. This was discussed with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, says Gabriel. Among the measures, among other things, a tightening of the travel advice for Turkey, according to his information. “We can’t help it,” said Gabriel, with reference to the arrest of a German in Turkey.
In the framework of the realignment is to also be about the allocation of state Hermes credit guarantees for investments of companies in Turkey, spoke. “You can not advise anyone to invest in a country if there is no legal security any more, and even company, totally respectable companies, in the proximity of terrorists to be brought,” said Gabriel in Berlin.
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Effective Means Of
That would indeed be a good way to put the Turkey and her little Sultan with economic means under pressure. Most observers believe that Germany and the whole of the EU were dependent on Turkey because of Ankara refugees from Europe prevents. Because of the closed of the Balkan route, this is no longer true, but nowadays, like they used to. Vice-versa, but Turkey is economically highly dependent on Europe. And among the European countries, Germany is by far at the top.
Germany is the main trading partner of Turkey. Around ten percent of all Turkish exports, with a value of about 14 billion Euro to go to Germany. In the second place, the UK follows. Significantly knocked off of Iraq. And still far behind other Western countries – so much for a possible re-orientation by Ankara towards the East as an Alternative to the EU.
In view of the realignment of German policy on Turkey, the economy expects a “significant decline in exports”. In the space of the measures should be implemented, it would suffer “also, the investment underneath,” explained the foreign trade Association (BGA) on Thursday. The already existing uncertainty in the case of German companies increases in the light of recent developments, “rapidly”.
Not a substitute for imports from Germany
Especially in the case of the type of goods traded, the Turkey is so dependent of Germany as any other country: machinery, electro-technical and chemical products, many manufactured by a highly specialised German company, is not readily available from other countries.
Conversely, Germany imported mainly textiles from Turkey, by far the most important Turkish export article, and by a large margin, which relates to the value of the goods – food. Here, however, the Turkey for Germany as the supplier is quite replaceable. China or Bangladesh, for example, could be used to help in the case of textiles, in the case of foodstuffs, the range of potential alternative suppliers is much larger.
Turkey is only on place 13
Two Numbers say it all practically: Germany is Turkey’s most important foreign trade partner; Turkey for Germany, but only to 13. Place, a glaring imbalance.
A distinctive feature of the Turkish-German economic relations, the many subsidiaries of German companies in Turkey. There are approximately 6800 such companies as subsidiaries or independent companies in Turkey. No other country comes close to this level. This also has to do with the many Turks living in Germany and the associated close contacts.
Turkey recorded regularly a huge trade deficit with the Rest of the world, because it introduces a lot more than running. The hole she stuffs among other things, the foreign exchange earners tourism, one of the most important sectors of the economy. Here, too, the Germans 2016 stood at the top with about 15 per cent of the foreign tourists.
The tourists stay away
The tourism industry in Turkey is an important economic factor. Traditionally, the industry generates around 13 percent of the gross domestic product was a reliable source of income. This changed especially in the past year: first, the attacks occurred at the beginning of the year 2016 in Istanbul, when the German died, then the failed coup in July.
The tourism industry has experienced a shock; a total sales plunged by about 40 percent. Almost four million Germans spent their holidays in 2016 in Turkey. In comparison to the record year in 2015, this was a decline of almost two million tourists.
In 2017, the industry is on the mend. Russian President Vladimir Putin had already repealed in the past year, a short-term Charter flight ban for Russian aircraft in Turkey. The number of Russian tourists increased five-fold then up to the spring of this year.
Lira and economic growth in the basement
Also in the case of the Germans, Turkey-holiday makers there were in the spring, a slight upward trend. The but is expected to be after the recent events stopped. According to a representative Forsa survey for the television station RTL, only twelve percent of the respondents consider Turkey as a safe holiday destination. 87 percent of the country after the coup, and Erdogan’s Referendum for rather uncertain. And this survey comes from the April – three months before the current heightened Travel advice from the foreign office. Today, the share of respondents who consider Turkey as a safe is probably to look for more in the single-digit range.
Erdogan has also added to the Turkish economy serious damage. The Turkey was shortly after the turn of the Millennium, still with a dream of growth rates are liable to Shine a year, more than seven percent, and even China in the shade, has slowed down the pace significantly since then, and since the third quarter of 2016, the economy will shrink performance .The Turkish Lira has lost since the coup attempt of 30 percent of its value, Inflation is running at eight to nine per cent, unemployment is over ten percent, and the rating agencies that the Turkey, in the meantime, much worse than a few years ago.
To the economic uncertainty political uncertainty: Erdogan has let thousands of people to imprison or suspend, it acts like an autocrat. This climate also inuences the business world. Investors want a stable political System, legal certainty and predictability. Erdogan stands for the opposite.