A month before the vote, the election campaign in Kenya is in the hot Phase. Even now, the bearings accuse each other of manipulation attempts. Observers are warning of violence after the proclamation of the results.
The election in Kenya is characterised by mistrust. President Uhuru Kenyatta announced a, to want not to two scheduled TV debates with his Challenger Raila Odinga to attend. In the debate four years ago, had felt that Kenyatta by the moderators unfairly treated. Shortly after the announcement also Odinga pulled back. Regardless of whether the TV debates take place, the process is symptomatic of a campaign in which the discussion on political development and reforms in the Background. 8. August is for the Kenyans, a Super election day: they agree not only on the head of state, but also governors, senators and County governments.
Kenya’s President Kenyatta (center) wants to win again
The two camps of Kenyatta’s party, the Jubilee and the Odingas National Super Alliance (NASA) define themselves primarily in ethnic and regional. And, both camps sense of systematic discrimination by supporters of political opponents in the media and electoral institutions. In the case of an audit of the voters ‘list by the consulting firm KPMG, more than 80,000 Dead were removed from the lists – it is possible, however, that a Million Deaths would be in the voters’ register, it was called by the company. Both parties accuse the opponent to irregularities in its core areas for electoral fraud.
“Ethnic and political polarization”
Already in the past two elections, the results have been challenged: in 2007, more than 1,000 people died in unrest after the election. In 2013, Raila Odinga contested the outcome of the election, unsuccessfully, in court. Because NASA feared that the election Commission could manipulate the counting in favour of the government, has announced the party in the election local results in parallel with itself. You should come to a different result than the electoral Commission, civil unrest is programmed.
The Challenger: Raila Odinga
The election observation mission of the European Union has started its work already. It was “no secret” that one is Worried about a possible outbreak of violence, says chief election observer, Marietje Schaake. Also Kenya National Commission for cohesion and Integration (NCIC), which was founded after the riots of 2007, to reduce the risk of ethnic conflicts, the currently tense situation with great concern. The Vice-Chairperson Irene Wanyoike diagnosed with “an increasing ethnic and political polarisation throughout the country, an increase in inflammatory statements by the political class and their followers.”
The NCIC is called in 20 of the 47 counties of Kenya as potential focal points for violence in the elections. In the affected areas, more than half of the population of the country lives. Police spokesman Charles Owino says it is working with the NCIC and the secret service, the security forces were well prepared, and you go out of a peaceful election. Also, prison guards, game wardens and police recruits to help ensure a safe process of choice. Kenyan media reports that it was as a precautionary measure, been tear gas in the expected focal points supplied.
Protests against Kenya’s election Commission in the spring of 2016
Change through the youth
The question was not whether there was violence, but the extent to which, says the head of the East Africa office of the Heinrich-Böll-Foundation, Ulf Terlinden. In the remaining month before the election, a lot could be done to prevent an escalation: a politician whose rhetoric stoked the situation further, should recognize the procedure and the results of the election to accept, as it fails. The civil society should be supported to emphasize the cohesion. The security forces should allow demonstrations as long as they remain peaceful. And representatives from abroad should prepare now to mediate in the event of a dispute between the parties.
While both camps to give themselves confident of victory, predicting polls in a close election. Anyway, forecasts are difficult, because the number of registered voters compared to the election four years ago to 36 percent to almost 20 million. Whether the many Neuwähler follow the known Patterns and ethnicity to vote only on 8. August. Most of them are young people. Ulf Terlinden sees this as an approach for change of the political system in Kenya: “The young people have the biggest problems with unemployment, and in the area of education. And you have the Chance, from the old, very strong ethnic-regional-influenced Thinking to emerge. The Trend is definitely there.”
Staff: Jacob Bomani