Self-driving cars in decades


Deutsche Bank evaluated the market opportunities for digital and self-driving cars, despite the great potential that is currently skeptical. Good opportunities are given for alternative mobility concepts like Car-Sharing.

Of computers controlled cars are not likely to have the continuously-growing car market before the year 2040 penetrated, is one of the Central results in Frankfurt on Monday presented a study of Deutsche Bank Research.

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The industry is faced with enormous technological challenges, to automate a “chaotic” System like the road traffic, said Analyst Eric Heymann. For the rail transport offer first much more likely. Since a large number of non – or only partially digitized vehicles and other traffic participants will be on the road, expect a transition period of several decades.

Car manufacturers are in competition with technology giants

In principle, the economists of the largest German Bank, reckon that the car manufacturer can claim in the technology race with digital service providers such as Google or Apple. For this is the high adaptability of the industry and the high barriers to External in the case of an entry in the auto-production discussions. The opportunities of the Internet companies were in the automotive data market.

Unlike in the case of electrical drives-no government subsidies are at the increasing digitalization of vehicles is necessary, said Heymann. New systems were gradually installed in the latest models. The price premiums in the three – to four-digit Euro area are not comparable with the additional costs of electric mobility.

Small but fine niche

Strong increases expected Heymann in the Development of alternative mobility services such as Car-Sharing. You could cover in ten to 15 years, around five percent of the motorized individual traffic. Stay still a niche market, which could bring sales in the two digit billion range. “The private car remains the norm.”

ul/hb (dpa)