Starting this Monday, the Farc guerrillas to give up their last weapons. However, the historical peace process is only in its decisive Phase. Many obstacles are yet to overcome — and quickly.
Actually, the Revolutionary armed forces of Colombia (Farc) should have already been made in April all of the handguns. Then in may, now it is to be in June. This delay is probably one of the smaller problems in the peace process. And yet you endanger his success.
Because the disarmament of the guerrilla is only the start of a series of much more complex processes, the queue and then at the same time. Probably the most sensitive are the involvement of the rebels in the Colombian society and the legal processing.
Court proceedings against hundreds, perhaps thousands of alleged torturers, rapists, kidnappers and murderers. Although around two-thirds of the approximately 7000 to the last active fighters should be exempted, because it is based due to the comprehensive documents that they were not involved in war crimes. Could you 6000 to 10,000 militiamen journeymen, who were connected to the Farc-free and also the peace agreement agreed to Amnesty to benefit.
Endless Court Proceedings
Nevertheless, approximately 2,500 Ex-guerrilla to be indicted by a special court then remained, because they are suspected to be directly in crimes against humanity may have been involved. In the case of acquittal they will also be granted Amnesty, if you opt for a rehabilitation program.
Around 60 percent of their weapons may have been made by the Farc — but time is of the essence
Who is guilty, and a full confession drops, depending on the Severity of his actions — the Chance of a mild punishment, and this could be used to Eliminate land mines. In prison, however, only come, to whom it is proved that he was hiding serious crimes.
All of these things are part of the peace Treaty. Now, it is important that you efficiently implement, says Günther Maihold, a Latin America expert at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und politik (SWP): «The crucial question is: can the Colombian government to keep each of these processes more or less synchronous?»
Time is of the essence
So far, however, it is not even clear when the jurisdiction of a Special court begins its work, let alone how long it will take until all procedures are completed. The government provides first ten years, Maihold considers the utopian and expects to at least Double.
At the same time, the amnestied terrorists songs in the society. Here, too, the time is likely to play an important role, says Maihold: «If this whole process is to be successful, you must work Reintegration is very fast and these people in an economic survival option.»
Many Farc members have lived parts of their lives in the underground
Not an easy task, because many of the guerrillas are illiterate, only a few have enjoyed school-leaving qualifications, let alone a higher education. You must therefore set up a short term job-oriented qualifications, so Maihold, for example, in social work or as an Engineer’s assistant, «otherwise, very soon the frustration will set in».
What huge challenges to the country, know the Colombians from the — in many respects comparable to the peace Treaty of 2005, to begin the demobilization of 30,000 right-wing paramilitaries.
2200 of them died in the subsequent years — many under dubious circumstances. About 4400 were accused of crimes against humanity involved. Almost all of them announced, to confess their deeds to the reintegration program. But also of them «died» more than 200 during their cooperation with the authorities, 78 were caught in crimes and from the program excluded.
Nearly half of the more than 2000 Ex-combatants — is now fled and has presumably formed new militias. Less than 2000 are still in the program. And also the legal processing that is little hope for the Farc process: so Far, less than 50 were spoken last maintenance judgements.
This discouraging Parallel is likely to be a reason why so many Colombians against the peace Treaty sceptical. In the case of the Referendum in the beginning of October 2016 18 percent of the population for the peace Treaty not voted once. Although not voted hardly, however, however, two-thirds of Colombians cast their ballots in the first place.
After the disarmament, the UN should also assist with the reintegration of the rebels
In this respect, it is unlikely that this is true, what many advocates of the peace Treaty claim: that his opponents are either rights hard-liners, or of the conflict benefit. In particular, in the cities, says Maihold, take amnestierte terrorists mainly as a security risk true.
At the same time, said Maihold, could be the Ex-guerrillas, as the former paramilitaries — self in danger: «If we see in the coming months that former Farc fighter out of revenge or anger to be murdered, it could be critical to the loyalty of the Farc to the peace process.»
The importance of early progress for the success of the peace process, it seems that all those responsible to be clear: Just only the Farc and the government have asked the United Nations to begin the second Phase of their Mission, with the help of the accompanied re-integration as soon as possible.
However, on the 17. May a judgment of the Colombian constitutional court introduced the major points of the implementation in question. The Colombia expert Adam Isacson of the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) writes on its Website: «The danger is that the Colombian Congress treated the result of four years of negotiations, as a pure suggestion.»
This could come in especially if Juan Manuel Santos’ second and final term in 2018 ends. Because whether or not his successor is the candidate that advertises the continuation of the peace process to voters, is likely to depend on how far the has thrived up to then. «I’m increasingly skeptical that all will go well», says Maihold, «because what I see is that the Colombian society is the ground.»
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