Peace in Myanmar

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Myanmar

Peace in Myanmar

The National League for democracy in Myanmar, is preparing a major peace conference. Aung San Suu Kyi requires great skill in negotiations, the parties to the conflict to bring closer to each other.

For almost 70 years, the citizens run around in Myanmar wars. Hardly independence from Britain was achieved in 1948, the first ethnic minorities and political groups to the weapons. Since then, it has managed none of the government ever, a country-wide peace.

In November 2015, the democratically elected National League for democracy (NLD) wants to change under the leadership of Aung San Suu Kyi. Peace was one of the Central elections of the NLD in March 2016, the government promise. In a first step, the NLD has restructured the controversial Myanmar peace centre, the peace process is to technically support, as the political Analyst Khin Zaw Win explained in an interview with Deutsche Welle. “The previous peace centre has been accused of a lack of transparency and partiality. Nevertheless, it initiated under the previous government, the peace negotiations. It was financed by foreign donors, in particular the European Commission. In the end, it could produce only a meagre result.” Khin Zaw Win believes the ceasefire agreement between the government and the eight armed ethnic groups in October 2015, which was signed under President Thein Sein.

Aung San Suu Kyi will lead the peace negotiations

The new peace centre is now run by the NLD. The negotiator at the peace talks, Aung San Suu Kyi. For mid-August, a large peace conference is planned. “If the peace laureate in Nobel creates price it is actually to bring the leaders of the armed ethnic groups, the military and the government to a common denominator, then you would have achieved something Historic,” the political scientist and Myanmar expert Marco Bünte of the Monash University in Kuala Lumpur, convinced.

Difficult Starting Position

The obstacles to be overcome are enormous. Because of the geographic and demographic situation would be first. In the multi-ethnic state of Myanmar’s population lives, a majority of Burmese in the centre and coastal regions. The ethnic minorities live in the horseshoe-shaped in the border regions of the country, where at the same time, the large resources, riches such as Jade, rubies and wood. Natural gas and oil lie off the coast in the Bay of Bengal, but must be via a Pipeline through the territories of ethnic minorities, for example, China. To find a balance of interests of all Stakeholders, similar to that of the quadrature of the circle.

A second, less fundamental Problem is the deep-rooted mistrust, the jahrzehte long citizens have left behind war, political turmoil and military rule. The ethnic minorities distrust of the Burmese majority, the Burmese majority distrusts the minority. The minorities distrust each other, and the military is considered by many as the root of all Evil. This shows particularly clearly the sensitive issue of disarmament. The military insists on the principle: one state, one army. “The military demands that the armed ethnic groups give up their weapons before they take a place at the negotiating table,” says Khin Zaw Win, and continues: “there is no trust between the people in Myanmar, the armed ethnic groups unimaginable, voluntarily to surrender their weapons.” How and whether this question is solved, is still open.

A first Pipeline leading across the country to China. It crosses both the Burmese territories, as well as the ethnic minorities

In addition, the location, if you put both problems in relationship, how Bünte points out, is complicated: “There are a number of ethnic groups who have relatively little interest in a comprehensive peace agreement. Especially fighting groups that have natural resources in the areas under their control and the benefit of the currently existing war economies, of course, have little incentive to take any kind of new beginning.”

Create something New

However, because both experts agree, there are also aspects that could allow a real new beginning under Aung San Suu Kyi. The leader of the NLD have suffered for years, even under the military; on the other Bünte and Khin Zaw Win emphasise her great Charisma and negotiation skill. Not least of all you and your party to be democratically legitimated. “In this respect, you may invite the ethnic groups, and say: Let’s create something New”, says Bünte.

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But on the part of the ethnic groups, there is also, of course, reservations. “The ethnic groups know exactly: Suu Kyi speaks at the front, but behind her is the military.” The military would, however, have contributed in recent years actively to the peace process. “In the past, it wanted a unitary state, but in the meantime, it can live with the federalism concept. This shows that the military is ready to learn.”

Unclear Position

Of course, whether it’s figuring out not only for the military, but also for the NLD is sometimes difficult, what the various armed ethnic groups want exactly. Each group has its own interests, stresses Bünte. It is hardly possible to find here a simple and quick solution. The negotiators would have to first find out what each group under federalism, power-sharing and autonomy is understood in concrete terms. “The ethnic groups are also not in agreement. In many cases there is no concrete Vision of what you want to achieve.”

If a group say they want to speak their own language and their children to their own schools send, then you can talk about it. But if you say, you only autonomy simply wanted to, then this is a very broad term, so Bünte. Khin Zaw Win hopes, in this connection, a Meeting of the armed groups on the border to China, which is due to begin on Tuesday (26.7.2016). “Hopefully, they will formulate a common Position.”

State

To find a common Position is therefore so difficult, because all ethnic groups have a history of its own. Some of the in the high country of minorities, have felt neither in colonial times nor afterwards ever anything of a state, Bünte. “Were your entire story about autonomously. There, federalism is equated with independence, while power-sharing is understood as a submission. There is, therefore, no historical role models, what are the ethnic groups in the negotiations could be based.”

In October under then-President Thein Sein signed a weapons Be at a standstill agreements with eight of the armed groups stand

It is in the current negotiations, therefore, not only the peace, but at the same time, therefore, to establish the modern state of Myanmar for the first time, and in such a way that all ethnic groups identifiziren can.

This also explains why the NLD, the already twice postponed, and now for August, a planned conference as the Panglong conference of the 21st century. Century. The original Panglong conference was held in 1947. At the time of independence hero Aung San and father of Aung San Suu Kyi in Shan state with representatives of the ethnic minorities of Shan, Kachin and Chin met, the future to negotiate a coexistence between the different peoples in independent Burma. In retrospect, the Panglong is excessive-conference today, mythic to a type of state-founding conference. In fact, most ethnic minorities were represented, at best, as an observer, and the negotiated Agreement was extremely vague.

Despite this, the NLD, the significant importance of the Panglong-conference-to-Use. Bünte says: “The planned conference and whose name is, of course, is pure symbolism. It is a strong Signal of Aung San Suu Kyi: I would like to a the country.” You should have success, there would be, for the first Time in the peace United state of Myanmar.