US elections

Is Donald Trump puts the brakes yet?

Even Donald Trump is only unofficially, presidential candidate of the US Republicans. Officially, he will be crowned soon by a party Congress. Or the is prevented? Ines Pohl explores the chances of this happening.

Actually, nothing of the nomination of Donald Trump as a presidential candidate of the Republicans in the way. Actually. In the pre-election campaign, so many people have voted for the business man with varying degrees of party book, that he has the votes, the necessary majority of delegates. And actually, all the members are obliged to adhere to these election results. But the party can, however, change in literally the last Minute of their rules and a different candidate for the race to the White house. How could go:

1. According to the party law, the Republicans had a Commission from 112 Participants together before each party Congress. This group consists of one woman and one man from each state and territory of the United States. It lays down the rules according to which the presidential candidate is chosen. If the majority of the Commission decides to free the delegates from the vote of the primaries and according to their own will choose, then everything is possible. There is no instance that could overrule such a decision.

2. If this Commission does not have the majority for such a decision, but at least 25 percent of the members of the Commission decide to free the delegates from the vote of the primaries, the decision in the Congress. Then the 2472 delegates would discuss and vote on whether the elections will be open. A mud fight would be safe.

3. Everything sounds somewhat easier than it is. Because each state has to keep its own rules to the delegates. This means that some members would have to vote for Trump, if the party provides you with the choice free. Others, in turn, must hold only in the first ballot, the results of the primaries and are then free. Pretty complicated. From a democratic theory point of concern: most Americans don’t look right here.

4. According to the current rules, approximately 95 percent of the delegates are obliged, accordingly, for those candidates who agree to the district at the primaries has won. Nevertheless, you have to know that the delegates are ordered in a fairly opaque process, and very often the political Establishment belong to. And I found it difficult to accept Donald Trump as a candidate.

5. The two big questions should be: Is it a promising human Alternative? And the members would be willing to risk a revolt in his own party, in order to prevent Donald Trump? Because, of course, all Trump would occur-trailer neatly conned, if you determine it is only in a months-long pre-election process, the candidates and the party then decides at the last Minute for someone else.

6. The nomination for the Republican national Convention 2472 members come together. With such a large group, the range of political assessments is bound to be huge. It ranges from convinced Trump opponents to fanatical Trump supporters with everything in between. Many of the delegates are ambitious young politicians – how much of this can be of career considerations? Are you ready, so extremely sensitive vote against the majority decision of the primaries to support? Or they will vote without regard to personal disadvantages against Trump, because he hurts in your eyes of the party?

7. In the end, the question of how and when the horror of the Republicans, actually ends faster: If Trump is not yet chosen a candidate? Or a candidate by the name of Trump would be a burden on the Republicans so that in the end even the disintegration of the party could stand?

8. Shortly before the Congress, only one thing is for sure: Everything seems possible.