Nuclear conflict

Iran: progress in small steps

It was a historic success of the diplomacy: the nuclear agreement with Iran. Tehran has ramped up its nuclear program, sanctions were lifted, Iran came out from Isolation. However, the disappointment grows.

Posh reset the Palais Coburg is located in the 1. Municipal district of Vienna. The guests of the luxury hotel is a converted house from the 19th century. Century can usually expect discretion and tranquility. Almost three weeks certain in the summer of 2015, however, television crews, reporters, and diplomats of the image. It is the final phase of a twelve-year process of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program. Involved: the foreign Ministers of the five permanent members of the UN security Council plus Germany on the one hand, and the Iranian Department colleague, on the other.

At the end of a historic success of persistent diplomacy, stand – in international politics rarely enough – After until in the early morning hours of negotiations, agreed by the EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini and Iranian foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif, finally, at the conclusion of the nuclear agreement. 100 pages, with five annexes, regulates in Detail, such as Iran moves its nuclear program and how the international community step in the comprehensive sanctions fans, have impacted the economic life of the country extremely.

20 days of the last round of Negotiations took place in Vienna’s Palais Coburg

A year after the cheers: disillusionment

After the successful completion was celebrated in Tehran until late into the night on the streets. A year after the nuclear deal in Iran now is a sobering experience. The expected economic recovery. “Lots of pots and pans, but no dinner”, to quote Iranians in the context of an old proverb. Ali Fetholla-Nejad thinks it’s a good summary of the situation. The Iran expert of the German society for Foreign policy (DGAP), explains in a DW Interview, the great hopes for an economic revitalization of Iran had been associated with many illusions. For one, the sanctions would be slower than expected, and the effects of the lifting would be slower than hoped. The hope on the Opening of civil society space in the country is scattered, Fatholla-Nejad: at Least in the short term, the authoritarian state had become stronger, the Repression has increased.

According to the agreement: jubilation on the streets of Tehran in July 2015

Requirements

The fact is that After the nuclear deal of Iran is under the strict supervision of the international atomic energy Agency IAEA. The has certified the country last December to meet his part of the agreement. This judgment has changed until today, despite engmaschigster controls nothing.

Therefore, at the beginning of the year, the first sanctions. What complicated the matter: The sanctions were imposed by the United Nations, to the part of the European Union, to the part of the United States. Oliver Meier of the Berlin science and politics Foundation (SWP) takes over the DW: “There are American sanctions, there can be approximately in the area of Finance, American sanctions in the areas to radiate to other business. And that gives the opponents of such an agreement, the opportunity to throw Sand in the gears.”

Opponents of the agreement, many of the continues of Berlin’s middle East expert: “In the US, there are many, not only the presidential candidate Trump, but in front of all of Congress, the say: You can and should not trust Iran. In the Region, Israel, but also some of the Gulf States are set to remain very critical. Conversely, there are also in Iran, even critics.”

Eye Financial Sanctions

As a result, the sanctions in the financial have proven to be of the area as a hard-to-immediate eye of the needle for the hoped-for Integration into the world economy. The German companies know. The see large potential for economic relations. And since Iran in June, debts in the amount of around half a billion euros has been settled, can Iran be stores even with Hermes export guarantees of the Federal secured. But the lack of a Bank compounds inhibit the shops.

The Iranian order of 118 Airbus aircraft is not because of the unexplained financing on the spot. Money transactions with Iran has been sanctioned by the U.S., yet dramatically. The legal uncertainty is large. And the banks are waiting for American banks to do the first step. Only on Tuesday, but a Meeting between the Iranian was cancelled, the Central Bank, the US Treasury, and international banks in London. On the Agenda is the desire of the Europeans to legally binding guarantees, for financial transactions with Iran is not punished.

There is a Deal-dividend

The Iran expert of the Crisis Group, sees this development with concern, but also with understanding. DW wrote Ali Vaez in an E-Mail, it should be no surprise to anyone that Iran is not about to become night, to a fully integrated market within the world economy. “Sanctions, particularly comprehensive and far-reaching as the imposed against Iran, will inevitably develop a life of their own. At least in the short term, they prove to be resistant to the repeal,” says Vaez.

Nevertheless, the Crisis Group expert, already a dividend from the nuclear deal for Iran. To Vaez is one the release of frozen funds in the amount of 55 billion dollars, the inflow of 3.5 billion US dollars of foreign direct investment and the increase in Oil production and oil exports to the level prior to the sanctions. Therefore, is expected in Iran this year, with an economic growth of five percent, as compared to only 0.5 percent in the past year.

Proxy conflict in Yemen: Saudi Arabia is flying air attacks. Reason: the alleged interference of Iran in the country

Although the danger of a nuclear armament of Iran seems, for the time being averted, the more peaceful the Region has become since then, but. The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia has further increased. During the Iran missile tests – what is the nuclear deal, strictly speaking, does not limit remains Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest importer of military equipment. These arsenals are used, among other things, on different pages, in Yemen and in Syria. What is missing is in this insecure Region, says DGAP expert Fatholla-Nejad: a new security architecture, bearing in mind the legitimate interests of all sides. A conference for security and cooperation in mind, the experts, similar to the CSCE in Europe. Until then, it is still a long and thorny way. For now, you must be glad that the nuclear agreements – as shaky as it is constructed and despite of his powerful enemies.