Afghanistan

Russia’s new role in Afghanistan

No matter whether it is military aid or economic cooperation: Russia wants a say in Afghanistan. And it is on all sides of the conversation.

Russia and Afghanistan are returning. It’s almost as if the old enmity, forget a decade long occupation and the bloody war, the the Soviet Union from 1979 to 1989, led in Afghanistan. Today, Moscow and Kabul to maintain good relations with each other. By the end of 2015, these were underpinned with a security agreement. In the framework of this agreement, the Russian Ambassador a few days ago, in a solemn ceremony handed over a total of 10,000 brand-new Kalashnikov rifles to the Afghan government. For more military and economic aid will follow.

Russia’s American-led Intervention in Afghanistan since the beginning of the US-although not with troops, but logistically involved in the reconstruction. Officially, this was institutionalized through the NATO-Russia Council, which operated for many years. In the past year, but Russia and the West in the Ukraine conflict überwarfen. All practical military and civilian cooperation between NATO and Russia was suspended for an indefinite period of time.

Old love does not rust

Zamir Kabulov, the Russian special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan

“As the conflict with the West deteriorated, and the cooperation in Afghanistan lay fallow, chose Russia to be on their own,” says Omar Nessar, Director of the Moscow center for Modern Afghanistan studies. “Russia sought to the proximity to the Afghan government, in order to self-powerful in the events to intervene”. And the best way through military assistance and economic investment. Thus, Russia is planning to support Afghanistan in the housing sector. The secured Zamir Kabulov, Russian special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani during a Meeting at the end of February again. In a time, to pull out of Western troops increasingly from Afghanistan, searches for the Afghan government to new partners. Russia, but also China, are a welcome Alternative. China is also a major player in the indirect peace talks with the Taliban.

Officially, Russia supports the resumption of direct talks with the Taliban, although it is hard to believe that this could start soon. Zamir Kabulov called on the Taliban are still a part of it. During his recent Meeting with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, he said that only the Afghan government would be able to run with the Taliban peace talks. “The Russians had friendly relations with the Afghan government, but they have no confidence in the US-and China-led peace talks with the Taliban,” said Javid Ahmad, a South Asia specialist and a doctoral student at Yale University. “You are more likely to be interested in a parallel diplomatic approach which is led from Moscow, to promote their own interests”. To this end, Russia has found a rather unusual Partner: the Taliban.

Double Game?

“The interests of the Taliban to comply with our agreement,” said Zamir Kabulov, Russian special representative for Afghanistan, during a Moscow conference on Afghanistan in January of this year. Kabulov said that the Russian government is with the Taliban, in a conversation to exchange information. The common denominator of both parties is the concern for the increasing presence of the “IS” in Afghanistan. The Russians partake of the IS as a much greater threat to their interests, Javid Ahmad. The Taliban were interested only in Afghanistan, which IS, however, internationally active. “That’s why the Russians are now talking with their former archenemies: the Taliban”.

According to a report by the UN in September 2015 IS fighters are already in 25 of the 34 Afghan provinces have become more active. Many of these fighters are former Taliban. Currently, the size of the IS in Afghanistan is estimated to be about 3000 fighters. “This is a calculated, at the same time dangerous approach that carries far-reaching consequences for the security in Afghanistan and the risk of a Proxy war involves going”. According to Ahmad, any material support for the Taliban is also a violation of the UN sanctions against the Taliban.

For Omar Nessar, this statement is exaggerated. “All the regional powers and great powers to maintain contacts with the Taliban,” says the expert. “Whether it is Pakistan, China, Japan, or Iran – all countries have a right to contact the Taliban. Why not also Russia?”. According to Nessar Kabulovs would have twisted the statements of the Western and Afghan media often misinterpreted. “The goal is, I think, to weaken the confidence of both countries and to prevent a renewed activity of Russia in Afghanistan”. Russia, Nessar-I still have powerful enemies in Afghanistan.

The Amu Darya, instead of the Volga

Tajik soldiers to secure the border with Afghanistan

Nevertheless, Russia fears a Spill over of terrorist groups in Central Asia. According to Afghan security authorities, hundreds of terrorists from Arab countries, Chechens, Uighurs, Uzbeks, Tajiks, and Pakistanis from the Pakistani North-penetrated Waziristan to Afghanistan to fight there. Since last year, the North of Afghanistan is the increasingly bloody conflict.

The heavy presence of terrorist fighters so close to Russia’s backyard, Moscow is increasingly Worried. In order to prevent a Penetration in the direction of Russia, Russia, therefore, on the structure and training of the Tajik army. “Better we fight the Islamists on the Amu Darya as on the Volga,” said Kabulov, in an Interview with the Russian news Agency Interfax at the beginning of the year. The border river between Afghanistan and Tajikistan is, in this respect, Russia is of particular strategic importance.