Comment: Assad must be soft

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Syria Conflict

Comment: Assad must be soft

The U.S. and Russia have a truce in the Syrian conflict agreed. The success of this agreement, however, depends whether they have their regional allies on the line can bring, says Loay Mudhoon.

The hope was to great, as US Secretary of state John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on 12. February in Munich the agreement on a cease-fire in the murderous Syrian conflict is announced. However, this Agreement had two weeks ago, no real Chance, because the date was from the Russian point of view is simply unfavorable.

Meanwhile, Moscow has in Syria created facts: The Russian Intervention has the of the rebel-beleaguered Assad Regime before the demise preserved. Remember: Assad’s army was several months ago, not even in the location, the subjects of the regime in and around the capital Damascus and the Alawite stronghold of Latakia to defend.

Due to massive attacks by the Russian air force to all Anti-Assad-rebels – without regard to the civilian population – and with the help of the Lebanese Hezbollah, and various Shiite jihadist militias from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan could the Assad Regime, even to be stabilized.

Russia can Assad save – want it?

Meanwhile the military presence of Russia in Syria is so great, that it is the Assad Regime to the victory. But where would Putin apparently does not go. Because this would be a colonization of Syria by a Russian-Shiite Alliance is equal, the Russia in a long, brutal and costly war against the Sunni majority of Syria to be drawn in.

Loay Mudhoon directs the Dialogportal qantara.de

Understandably, remains the skepticism about large, whether from Saturday (29.2.) current cease-fire will hold. This is primarily because their bases are full of holes. Especially vulnerable the American concession that the Russian air force the radical Islamist al-Nusra Front during the cease-fire bomb may, the entire fragile agreement. The Al-Qaida offshoot of is in Northern Syria and cooperates in part with other moderate Assad opponents together.

But even more important for the success of the agreed upon ceasefire is the ability of Washington and Moscow, their regional allies on the line: Putin has not only the weak, Assad force, the cease-fire of respect, but also numerous, hard to control Shiite jihadist militias, the Iranian Regime after Syria brought.

The trust in the United States is shaken

Meanwhile, the USA to its allies Saudi Arabia and Turkey to act as a possible entry into a political process not to threaten. Finally, Riyadh and Ankara, the Syrian opposition groups – including Islamist groups, to convince the cease-fire, to accept.

But the confidence of the Arab Sunnis in the Obama Administration is due to the Atomdeals with Iran and played well in the Syrienkonflikt shaken. In Riyadh and the Gulf States, you go for months assuming that Obama and Kerry the previous allies in the Middle East in the lurch and will be waiting for the new President in the white house. Also therefore reacts Saudi Arabia irritated on the latest developments in Yemen, Iraq and Syria.

The Arab Sunnis are the restoration of the Assad regime will never accept. It is also for this reason, you have Assad in a Transitional government soft. Otherwise it takes the brutal war in Syria for years.

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