Kiev’s spiral of recession continues to rotate

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Ukraine

Kiev’s spiral of recession continues to rotate

Two years after the change of power in Kiev are the characters again to change. Reforms go slow, allegations of corruption are getting louder. Now to break the coalition government.

February is once again a Krisenmonat in the Ukraine. Two years ago, in these days culminated when the opposition protests in Kiev, dozens of people died in street battles, the President Viktor Yanukovych fled to Russia. Now shake the chair under Prime Minister Arseni Jazenjuk, the time came to Power. The Pro-Western ruling coalition on Friday (19.02.2016) is officially broken, after the female leader of Parliament to the withdrawal of the party “self-help” announced. Before leaving the Fatherland party of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s coalition.

Now the clock ticks for the Parliament. The two remaining parties, the “popular front” of Jazenjuk and the “Poroshenko Block” of the President, have no own majority more. If within 30 days no new coalition to emerge, could the President dissolve Parliament. If it comes to that, is unclear. The populist radical party, in August, the coalition had left, would like to be a part of it. “It is still too early, the current coalition to the grave, to carry,” said the DW of the Kiev policy expert Yaroslav Makitra. Instead of the original Five-party coalition could be a triple-Alliance to stay.

Power struggle between Jazenjuk and Poroshenko

The government crisis came to a head on Tuesday, as the President of Petro Poroshenko to the Prime Minister Jazenjuk the resignation had counseled. The Parliament assessed the work of his government as “unsatisfactory”. But Jazenjuk survived surprisingly the subsequent vote of no confidence.

Two years ago, it came to the overthrow of former President Viktor Yanukovych

Many in Ukraine see this as a warning to Jazenjuk: We could make You fall, but You’d better go myself. Because there were apparently enough votes for a vote of no confidence. Would all members of the Poroshenko party voted, would the government have to cancel. But more than 20 remained the vote away. Some MP from the Poroshenko party see this as a “counter-revolution of oligarchs” and a “conspiracy”.

A possible Background is in the Constitution. It defines Ukraine as a parliamentary democracy. The Prime Minister has more Power than the head of state. The pressure of the West has open rivalry between Poroshenko and Jazenjuk previously prevented, but these times seem to be over. Observers such as the prestigious Kiev Journalist Vitali Portnikow believe, the President would like to have a loyal Prime Minister to install and two Schüsselministerien, of the Interior and of justice, control. So far they are with Jazenjuk-people occupied.

Withdrawal should confidence return

It is not all that long ago, as Jazenjuk on 27. February 2014 with 371Stimmen to the new Prime Minister elected by the Parliament. The then 39-Year-old was regarded as a symbol of hope. In his inaugural speech promised Jazenjuk no quick success and named his first Cabinet the “Kamikaze”, a troupe of political suicide.

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This comparison applies also to the second government of Jazenjuk, which he joined in December 2014 forwards. His party “people’s front” was at that time the strongest force in elections, but lost quickly to support. Their poll numbers remain in the low single digits. This decision Poroshenko in his appeal, the government radically transform. Before put also the retired Minister of economy Aivaras Abromavicius in a DW Interview Jazenjuk the resignation close, “to the lost restore confidence”.

Activist: “We expect more”

Elizabeth Schtschepetilnikowa was as a student activist in the Ukrainian Schicksalswinter 2013/2014 together with Jazenjuk a member of the coordinating Council of the Pro-Western Euromaidan movement . Today, she is studying in the USA and looks worried at their home. “We see, unfortunately, a return to political intrigues,” said the young woman in the DW. She was worried about the disintegration of the coalition and warns of a destabilization.

Two years after the Maidan Revolution draws Schtschepetilnikowa a mixed balance sheet. “On the one hand, there are many successes, especially the civil society has now more influence on the happenings in the country,” said the activist. But the old System in politics and economy is still there. Above all, corruption must be stronger to fight: “We expect more.”

The fact that the murder of dozens of Maidan activists on 20. February 2014 until today not been definitively elucidated, she feels as “deep contempt” for the victims. “There are in the System still many people who don’t want change,” says Schtschepetilnikowa. This is probably one of the reasons why the Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Viktor Schokin on Tuesday (16.02.2016) the President asked to resign and did it. Schokin was for months under pressure also from the West.

Stumbling blocks on the way to Europe

For experts and observers to the balance sheet of the new rulers in Kiev is mixed. Thus, the economically troubled Ukraine with Western help to be stabilised. Most people, however, suffer from a dramatic decline in the quality of life. The Inflation amounted at the end of 2015, according to government sources, around 50 percent, the economy shrank.

Active against Yanukovych – Maidan activist Elizabeth Schtschepetilnikowa

It fought on the Maidan-Revolution not only against corruption, but also for the future of Ukraine in the European Union. But the EU is because of the refugee and Migrationskrise in a state in which only a few optimists to a theoretical accession of Ukraine believe. The free trade area with the EU is since the beginning of the year a reality, but it would still take a long time, to simple Ukrainians benefit from it. The only tangible success on the way to Europe is expected in the coming months, the abolition of the visa requirement, the Poroshenko and Jazenjuk their countrymen had promised. But also you device is now in danger, because the Ukraine can be time with the adoption of the necessary laws.

But believe activists like Schtschepetilnikowa that probably the greatest problems of Russia annexed Crimea and the continuing conflict with prorussischen separatists in the East of the country. Without a solution to these problems will, in the Ukraine still a long kriseln.