Brexit: Everything on one card

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European Union

Brexit: Everything on one card

Britain’s Prime Minister David Cameron and European Commission President Juncker are working on a compromise between the UK and the EU. You can Brexit still turn away? An analysis by Max Hofmann from Brussels.

Even in the autumn or the summer, wants the British Prime Minister David Cameron his fellow countrymen about the whereabouts in the EU vote. Before that, he wants about a EU Reform negotiations, the British for the European Union advertise. Together with Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has made Cameron about possible compromises to advise, on 18. February the heads of state and government will be presented.

This text must in many respects be water resistant: It must be the British, to convince that it’s worth it in the Referendum on the EU remain with a “Yes” vote. In addition, the Text of the other EU member States the feeling that they are not the soul of the community sell. And he should already foreseeable legal attacks of the next few years can survive.

What the UK gets

The compromise about a possible EU Reform, as Britain demands, revolves Essentially around four themes-packages. Three of them are regarded as unproblematic:

Jean-Claude Juncker pulls the strings in the back-room conversations

– No discrimination for Non-Eurozone countries: Cameron wants to be sure that countries which do not have the Euro as currency use, no disadvantages compared to countries of the Euro area. This claim is rather of a theoretical nature, because at the Moment, EU members, such a disadvantage is not.

– The EU must be more competitive: To this objective in many member States and the EU Commission are already known. The UK need no one to convince.

– The UK wants to be freer within an “ever closer Union” : this point is Also a question of interpretation. The “ever closer Union” is one of the basic principles of the EU. Nevertheless, actually no one assumes that the British will ever be a similar Integration in the EU take place, such as in Germany and Belgium. Because great Britain already enjoys very many exemptions and ways to particular processes not to participate.

What the UK may get

The fourth package, Cameron everything on one card at the same time, it is also the strittigste part. The British Prime Minister wants for all immigrants access to certain social security benefits limit. This should also be a citizen of the European Union. A core principle of the EU States, however, that the legislation of an EU state in no case be discriminatory for citizens of another state. According to previous information, the Commission has Cameron with a proposal contrary to, without compromising the core principle to violate.

Angela Merkel is ready to compromise

– The restriction could be temporary: The government in London sought so far, then, immigrants only for a certain period of time from the social benefits exclude. Cameron calls for four years, and he could also get.

– An exception could be the limitations of justify: To court, to insist, would have to be the UK “objective evidence” to submit, the evidence that immigration is the welfare system disproportionately burdened. Depending on how “excessive” is defined, could the country even the data necessary for this show.

What the UK will very likely not get

The above-described Vierjahresmechanismus is a trump card, the UK only once can play. If he is in the year 2017 to enable would be, would the restriction to 2021 – similar to an Emergency or Einwanderungsbremse. Then get all EU citizens the same benefits as the British. Nevertheless, the EU will continue to want to stay in control. Accordingly, it is London, not just arbitrarily pulling the emergency brake. Only the European Council would be able to the green light for the mechanism to give, after examination of the Commission. For Cameron would be to this loss of control is a bitter pill, but a relatively small one.

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Accept the the States the compromise?

The German Chancellor has repeatedly emphasised that freedom of movement within EU not negotiable. The previously discussed compromise restricts you on the paper. Of course, hopes Cameron insisted that no benefits and no migrants more to come. However, Merkel agree on that – also against the Background that you have to frequently compromise has shown, to the British in the EU to keep.

The most violent criticism comes from Poland. This is not surprising, finally, living and working around 700,000 poles in the UK. As things currently stand, they would continue to receive social benefits, because the emergency brake would only apply to new arrivals, apply. So could the poles be convinced.

Conclusion: Should the heads of state at the February summit, a similar package on the way, would David Cameron have enough in Hand to his fellow countrymen for the EU to advertise. Almost all claims it would have been enforced, albeit with some procedural and temporal constraints on the fourth package. Some EU countries are grumbling and more British exceptions annoy. But you will come to the conclusion that the EU is currently without an exit of the UK – is in a bad condition. The epilogue at the end anyway the British. Her “Yes” is about the whereabouts in the EU to decide.